Vietnam Economic Growth Report 2025 Interactive

Vietnam Economic Growth Report 2025

Strong H1 momentum with 7.52% GDP growth; solid services and manufacturing performance amid global headwinds.[4,1]

Last updated: All figures include citations Mobile-optimized
Q2 2025 GDP (YoY) 7.96% Source: GSO/Trading Economics[4,1]
H1 2025 GDP (YoY) 7.52% Source: GSO[4]
Inflation (Jun 2025) 3.57% Source: GSO/IMF/ADB[4,2,16]
Unemployment (Q1 2025) 2.20% Source: GSO[4]

Executive Summary

Vietnam’s economy sustained robust momentum in 2025. GDP rose 7.96% in Q2 (YoY) and 7.52% in H1—the strongest first-half since 2011—propelled by services and manufacturing despite global trade tensions and tariff pressures.[4,1] Inflation remained contained within a 3–4.5% target band, unemployment stayed low at 2.20%, and FDI inflows accelerated, underscoring resilient fundamentals and investor confidence.[4,2,16,12,13]

Growth Momentum Macro Stability External Risks
  • Baseline outlook: solid growth sustained; international forecasts (IMF, ADB) remain below government’s ambitious 8.3–8.5% target.[2,16,4] See Key Indicators.
  • Policy stance emphasizes stability and resilience while enabling fiscal space for counter-cyclical support if global shocks intensify.[4,17]
  • Structural reliance on FDI merits attention alongside domestic capacity deepening to mitigate overdependence and inflation risks.[12,13]

Methodology

This report synthesizes official statistics and reputable international sources. Data points are directly extracted from the provided research text and mapped to original sources listed in the References.

  • Primary data sources: Vietnam General Statistics Office (GSO), IMF, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Trading Economics, and Vietnam Investment Review.[4,2,16,1,12,13]
  • Processing: Key indicators structured into interactive charts and tables; section cross-references added; all statements include citations where applicable.
  • Visualization: All charts rendered client-side using Canvas/SVG; no external libraries used.
Note: No additional data has been inferred beyond what is provided; qualitative visuals (e.g., distribution counts) avoid implying undisclosed magnitudes.

Findings

GDP Growth — Q1 & Q2 2025

YoY growth rates; H1 average shown as reference line.[4,1]
Q1–Q2 2025 H1 2025 Avg (7.52%)
Source: GSO; Trading Economics.[4,1]

2025 GDP Growth Forecasts

Institutional forecasts vs. government target band.[2,16,4,7]
Forecast Gov Target Min Gov Target Max
Sources: IMF, ADB, FocusEconomics (aggregates); Government target (GSO/MPI).[2,16,7,4,17]

Inflation — May & Jun 2025

Monthly inflation with forecast reference lines.[4,2,16]
Actual IMF 2025 Forecast (2.9%) ADB 2025 Forecast (4.0%)
Sources: GSO, IMF, ADB.[4,2,16]

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Registered/disbursed (first 5 months) and total FDI (H1).[12,13]
Registered (5M) Disbursed (5M) Total (H1)
Sources: Vietnam Investment Review; Trading Economics (FDI series).[12,13]

Historical Q1 GDP Growth (2020–2025)

YoY rates by year depicted as intensity heatmap.[1,4]
Lower Higher
Sources: GSO; Trading Economics.[4,1]

Forecast Distribution (By Band, Count of Institutions)

Counts of forecasts ≤6%, 6–7%, ≥8% (Gov target band counted as ≥8%).[2,16,4,7,17]
≤6% 6–7% ≥8%
Based on counts (IMF, World Bank; ADB; Government target). Sources: IMF, ADB, FocusEconomics, GSO/MPI.[2,16,7,4,17]
Primary Growth Drivers
  • Services sector as major contributor to GDP growth.[4]
  • Manufacturing maintains recovery and development trajectory.[4]
  • Export industries continue as economic backbone despite trade challenges.[4,9,15]
  • Banking sector earnings projected +17% on ~15% system credit growth in 2025.[9,15]
Retail Performance

Q1 2025 retail sales reached 1.708 quadrillion VND (~US$66.83bn), up 9.9% YoY, signaling resilient domestic demand.[4]

Challenges and Risk Factors

  • Global trade tensions and US tariffs weighing on export-oriented firms.[9,14,15]
  • Geopolitical instability raising uncertainty and investment risk premia.[14,2]
  • FDI overdependence and inflation vigilance flagged by experts.[12,13,15]
  • Growth must avoid compromising macro stability, debt dynamics, or inflation.[2,4,16]

Labor Market — Unemployment Gauge

Q1 2025 unemployment at 2.20% (historically low).[4]
Low Moderate Elevated

Economic Outlook and Projections

Near-term Prospects (2025)

Strong start in Q1 (6.9% YoY) with ongoing traction. Outlook remains constructive though headwinds persist; the government’s 8.3–8.5% target is ambitious relative to international forecasts.[4,2,16]

Supporting Factors
  • Robust FDI inflows and confidence.[12,13]
  • Low unemployment supporting consumption.[4]
  • Controlled inflation preserving purchasing power.[2,16,4]
  • Export competitiveness despite trade frictions.[9,15]
  • Parliamentary support for higher growth target.[17]
Risk Mitigation
  • Diversify export markets; strengthen domestic demand.[4,17]
  • Enhance resilience and safeguard macro stability.[2,4,16]
  • Maintain fiscal space for counter-shock support.[2,4,16,17]
Historical context: 2024 GDP growth at 7.1%; long-term outlook resilient despite short-term headwinds.[1,4]

Data Tables & Filters

Indicator Period Value Type Source
Tip: Click table headers to sort. Use filters to show/hide categories.

Conclusion

Vietnam’s 2025 performance highlights resilience and growth potential. With inflation contained, unemployment low, and FDI strong, the economy is positioned for continued expansion. The divergence between government targets and international forecasts argues for cautious optimism, balancing ambition with macroprudential discipline.[2,4,12,13,16]

Sources and Citations

  1. Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate — https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/gdp-growth-annual
  2. International Monetary Fund - Vietnam Country Profile — https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
  3. World Economics - Vietnam GDP Estimates — https://www.worldeconomics.com/GDP/Vietnam.gdp
  4. Government of Vietnam - General Statistics Office — https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/
  5. Wikipedia - Economy of Vietnam — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam
  6. IMF - Vietnam and the IMF — https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
  7. FocusEconomics - Vietnam Economic Indicators — https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/vietnam
  8. National Statistics Office of Vietnam - Economic Reports — https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/
  9. VietnamNet - Economic News and Analysis — https://vietnamnet.vn/
  10. IMF - Article IV Mission Reports — https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR
  11. Vietnam Briefing - Economic Analysis — https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/
  12. Vietnam Investment Review - FDI Statistics — https://vir.com.vn/
  13. Trading Economics - Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment — https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/foreign-direct-investment
  14. White & Case - Regional Economic Outlook — https://www.whitecase.com/
  15. Vietnam Economic Times — https://vneconomictimes.com/
  16. Asian Development Bank - Vietnam Country Partnership — https://www.adb.org/countries/viet-nam/main
  17. Ministry of Planning and Investment - Vietnam — https://www.mpi.gov.vn/en/

Appendices

Appendix A — Cross-References Navigator

See: Executive Summary → Findings (Key Indicators) for the quantitative backbone; Risks section complements Outlook with policy actions. References anchor all figures to original sources.

Appendix B — Download Center Export
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